Wednesday, June 01, 2005

Grewal Scenarios

James Koole offers us four scenarios for the Grewal affair:
  1. Grewal was looking for a plumb appointment at any cost, and when he didn’t get a firm assurance, he took it to the press because he was angry that he couldn’t get a deal done.
  2. Grewal was looking for a plumb appointment, and when he didn’t get a firm assurance, he realized that he had really stuck his neck out and went to the press before Harper and the rest of the Party found out. He then claimed it was a sting.
  3. Grewal was approached by the Liberals, but when they got Belinda on side, they didn’t need him anymore and were smart enough to never actually promise anything specific.
  4. The whole thing was an elaborate entrapment scheme cooked up by senior Tories who were looking for more corruption ammunition upon seeing the latest poll results.
I'm not sure that this exhausts all the possibilities. It is not completely impossible, for example, that Sadesh Kalia operated independently to bring together two parties that he sensed would be interested in one another.

Another possibility, which I think needs serious consideration, is that Grewal recognized that he was in a position to extract a price from the Liberals and initiated discussions. His price--a cabinet post. Over pizza, Dosanjh made it clear that a cabinet post was unthinkable for a new crossee: Brison had to wait, Dosanjh himself had to wait. The next morning there was the block buster--Belinda crossed and had a new cabinet post (!). But after extended discussions, there was still no cabinet post for Grewal. He was sufficiently pissed that he decided to turn the whole thing into a sting. (This is a sub-version of Koole's #3)

The problem with all of these is--why the recordings? Don't they suggest that he was setting up a 'sting'? Unless, of course, he makes a habit of recording conversations. He has done it before, apparently. But if he had been doing much of this, wouldn't he have exposed this earlier and use (e.g.) his recordings to prove his version of disputed conversations?

4 Comments:

Blogger Mike said...

buckets,

You know my theory...and it fits with James Koole's scenarios as well. Why the recordings? Well, as you said, he's done it before, or at least claimed he has, only to "misplace" the tape (1995 in the incident with the BC Liberals). Again, my guess is that THIS time he was really going to record the conversations so he have "insurance" so he wouldn't get screwed by Liberals again (like in 1995, from his perception). I don't think he ever thought he would make them public, but that he would use them as "blackmail" to ensure he got what he was promised or what was inferred.

So if my "he was caught by the CPC" theory or one of James' "he got pissed at the Libs because they said no thanks" theories is true, the outcome is the same - he has released less than convincing and incomplete recordings that make him and the CPC look as bad, if not worse, than the Liberals they are attacking.

Oh and BTW, Sadesh Kalia came out again today and reiterated that Grewal initiated contact through him and started the whole thing.

10:45 PM  
Blogger buckets said...

I like your 'pissed that they said no', but would like to adapt it to 'pissed that they said no to him, but yes to Belinda'.

This fits, I think, with the taping. Half-hearted taping of the conversations with Sadesh Kalia. No taping of pizza with Dosanjh. News of Belinda breaks. And then every conversation and phone-call is taped.

11:54 PM  
Blogger Maritime Liberal said...

I agree that he was most likely using the tapes as back up to prevent what had happened to him the last two times (yes it happened in 2000 as well, not just 1995).

I also believe that he might have been caught by the Tories, though I can't prove that. I have been going through the transcripts and a couple of things jumped out at me that made me think that the CPC got wise to him.

First, one of the logs from a telephone conversation with Tim Murphy.

"TM I could meet you around 10’Oclock.
GG OK
TM Where would you like to meet ?
GG You tell me.
TM You want me to come to your office.
GG Sure !"

Now, and use your imagination on this as it is simply a theory, Tim Murphy I am sure is quite identifiable to the Tories. Is it possible that a Tory saw him go into the office? I am sure if they did, that would certainly raise suspicions. It is not everyday the chief of staff in the PMO visits opposition MPs. Personally, I am amazed Murphy went to Grewal's office. From the tapes, Grewal certainly liked the idea (makes taping easier). So that is point number one.

Point number two refers to a later conversation between Tim Murphy and Grewal.

"GG Hi, Gurmant Grewal here
TM Its Tim Murphy
TM I always told your staff that it was Tim calling.
TM That’s much better, now I can hear you clearly.
GG I can hear you well"

Did a Tory on Grewal's staff get wise to this maybe? Perhaps the combination of seeing Murphy come to Grewal's office the next day and this sent alarm bells off for someone.

Just a theory but so far it is the best I can find in regards to figuring out if the Tories discovered this.

7:28 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another possibility is that Grewal was only interested in getting (tricking) an apology out of Volpe, and was only using the "jumping part"y meetings as a ploy that he never really was that interested in ... unless of course they actually lost their minds and agreed to the outragious demands, which would be a bonus for him.

12:29 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home