Grewal said he would win as a Liberal (or, Scott Tribe and Gurmant Grewal think alike)

Over at Progressive Ploggers, Scott Tribe looks at the election results of two BC ridings.

In the BC Riding of Fleetwood-Port Kells in the 2004 Federal Election, the following results occurred:

Nina Grewal (C)- 14052
Gulzar Cheema (L) - 11568
Barry Bell (NDP) - 10976
David Walters (G) - 2484

Also in the 2004 Federal Election, the BC Riding of Newton-Noth Delta had this finish:

Gurmant Grewal (C) - 13529
Sukh Dhaliwal (L) - 13009
Nancy Clegg (NDP) - 12037
John Hague (G) - 2555

I dont think I'd be going out on a limb here saying that I think these 2 seats are going to be lost to the Conservatives at the next election. The real question would be predicting which party benefits.

In the newest version of Grewal's taped meeting with Dosanjh and Murphy, Grewal offers a similar analysis (GWTM.mpg, 48:40-59):

UD: I think that Nina will not win the next, um, seat, if she's a Liberal?
TM: Yeah, no, I understand that
GG: I may, she may not.
TM: Yeah
GG: If I'm Liberal in my riding, I'll win … easily [ed: Grewal's emphasis]
UD: If he decides to run…
TM: Yes
GG: That is, hypothecically, if I'm in cabinet
TM: Yes
GG: and I'm running as a Liberal in the next election. Not a problem.

This is not in the published transcript, or in the first tape of this meeting. If you're following along in the transcript, It has been excised, it seems, from somewhere between the last line of page 10 and the first line of page 11. (There is more than this that has fallen out here.)
Update. This note was posted before the Conservatives posted the new transcript of this conversation on Grewal's website. The pages cited above are to the old original transcript that went with the tampered tapes. In the new transcripts they are pp. 14-15. You can see them here